Wilson deserves credit for posting these numbers despite being pressured on nearly 40 percent of deep attempts. He finished with the second-most deep attempts and passing yards of any qualifying quarterback, with a significantly better TD-to-INT ratio than he put up on non-deep throws (10:9). But despite the wide-ranging problems with Denver's offense in 2022, Wilson was surprisingly effective when it came to airing it out. When I started this exercise, I didn't think Wilson would have much of a chance at ending up in the top 10, primarily because, well, he had a bad season. This one shocked me, and I suspect it will shock others, as well. If he can, he'll end up on this list again next summer. Now, the question is whether he can replicate that success with a Saints receiving corps that features two premier pass-catchers ( Chris Olave and Michael Thomas). In summary: Carr can produce at a high level when targeting elite receivers. Of Carr's +33.8 deep passing EPA, +29.2 came on targets to Adams.
In fact, Carr's place on this list is largely owed to his work with Adams, who helped produce most of Carr's deep passing success while earning a first-team All-Pro selection thanks to a 1,516-yard, 14-touchdown season.
Carr's CPOE was pulled down by attempts thrown in the direction of two other players: Hunter Renfrow (-21.7%) and Mack Hollins (-9.2%), the latter of whom caught just three of 16 deep targets on the year.
The duo was incredibly effective, accounting for 465 of Carr's 799 deep passing yards and eight of his 11 deep touchdown passes. Carr exceeded expectation on deep passes to Adams at a rate of +11.3%. When I first looked at these numbers, my immediate thought was overly simplistic: Davante Adams must get so open, Carr doesn't have many opportunities to complete passes that exceed expectation, leading to the relatively low CPOE figure above. In case you didn't already know, the Bengals' passing game is about more than just Burrow and Chase. They were a dynamite duo, producing a passer rating of 135.4 and a CPOE of +19.5% on deep throws. Burrow and Higgins connected on 50 percent of their 18 deep attempts, accounting for 328 of Burrow's 668 deep passing yards and nearly half of Burrow's deep passing touchdowns. Many might expect that to be Ja'Marr Chase, who led the Bengals in overall targets in each of the past two seasons, but it was actually Tee Higgins. One surprise from Burrow's production in 2022: the player he threw to most downfield. Otherwise, Burrow's deep passing stat line is very solid for a quarterback who is (rightfully) on track to be paid at an elite rate. While Burrow's 8:1 ratio on deep attempts is sterling, it doesn't quite stack up against the 11 deep passing touchdowns recorded by the eighth-place finisher, who also separated himself with a superior passing score on deep throws. 8 - they own a similar deep passing EPA per dropback, faced nearly identical pressure rates on such attempts and posted similar average gains per deep attempt. Deep attempts: 19-of-48, 668 yards, 8:1 TD-INT, 118.1 passer ratingīurrow's numbers are comparable to those of the QB at No.2 receiver in Buffalo opposite Stefon Diggs. All that leaves me wondering what his numbers might look like if Allen had an elite No. The 10 touchdowns are a product of a big-armed quarterback showing it off at a higher rate than anyone else in the league. He launched more deep passes than any NFL QB who qualified for this list, and he still managed to post a fairly solid EPA per dropback of +0.48. Anyone who watched the Bills and Patriots will surely nod in agreement with these figures, which make it clear Allen was exponentially better at producing game-changing plays on downfield throws.Īllen's numbers are also a product of persistence. The major difference, though, appeared in deep passing EPA, one of the most important metrics as it relates to passing score: Allen's mark (+35.9) blew Jones' (+13.9) out of the water.
#TUA TAGOVAILOA VS JOE BURROW STATS MAC#
Allen tied with AFC East rival Mac Jones in deep passing score, while Jones posted a better deep CPOE (+4.6%) than Allen. This was a close call between two quarterbacks with very different reputations.
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